What a set of finals!

This is going to be a short, excited post today. Short because I am packing and leaving for the beach today. And excited because wow, what a turn the conference finals have taken! Last time I wrote about the Suns and Magic, they seemed dead in the water. Since then so much has changed. In the East, momentum is wholly in Orlando's court. Jameer Nelson is showing that it is possibly to outplay the fantastic Rajon Rondo. Rashard Lewis has re-discovered his 3-point shot and is once again an offensive force. And Dwight Howard is bullying every big man the Celtics throw at him. [Isn't amazing that they are accomplishing all of this without any major contribution from Vince Carter. Imagine if they still had the Hedo Turkoglu.] Last time I wrote about them, I said the Magic had a 5% chance of winning this series. After watching the last two games, they now have an even 50% chance of winning the East. And out West, the Suns have captured lightening in a bottle. Beyond a rejuvenated Amare and they absurdly deep and talented bench, the Suns swept the Lakers in the desert and came within 2 points of stunning the champs at home. Still, LA is undefeated at home and when both teams play to their full potential is vastly superior, so they stil must be considered the heavy favorite. The Suns new odds to win are 35%. However these two series end up, it should be an incredible ride!

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

They did it. The Magic and Suns both won their MUST win games. And just as impressively, they both won with truly dominate performances from their superstars. Amare Stoudemire went a long way towards quieting his critics with his 42-point, 11-rebound performance. And Dwight Howard showed that the Magic will not go down with a fight with his 32-point,16-rebound, 4-block performance. But are these performances sustainable? What chance do the Magic and Suns have of rallying and pulling off the upset? Lets look at the Suns first. Down 2-1, the Suns really aren't in awful shape. They have shown that when the cards break their way, they can beat the Lakers. Just as importantly, they made LA bleed and showed they can be beat. However, to win this series, the Suns are going to have to play at least to their Game 3 level 3 more times. And two of those times will be in LA. So while it is possible, it will be incredibly difficult for Phoenix to win this series. The Suns have a 15% chance of winning this series. Now the Magic, they are in must worse shape. Even if they can sustain tonight's effort for 3 more games, the Magic cannot win this series. It took a dominate performance and overtime to win tonight. There is one thing Orlando can do to totally revolutionize this series and give themselves a fighting chance. And that is for same thing I have been preaching this whole series to happen. Rashard Lewis absolutely has too light it up from behind the arc. He played better tonight, but he needs to take his game to a whole new level. If Lewis can pick his game and clear Garnett out of the lane, then the Magic can give themselves the chance to pull off the ultimate upset. The Magic have a 5% chance of winning this series.

Can the Magic Still Win?

Of course they can. The Magic obliterated the Hawks with a group of 3-point sharpshooters. They shot so well from beyond the arc that they destroyed Atlanta without a dominating offensive performance from Dwight Howard. On the defensive end however, Howard was incredibly dominating. His numbers don't even fully show how many Hawks' shots he altered. Now flash to the first two games of this series. Howards' offensive numbers have been much higher, with him scoring 30 in Game 2. On the defensive end he has turned in a much more pedestrian effort. Kendrick Perkins has been doing a better job of entire defense than Howard has. More deadly for the Magic however, has been the sudden loss of their outside shot. Rashard Lewis had an excellent Hawks series, but he has been stone cold versus the Celtics. His impact is two-fold. First, he gives Orlando the obvious benefit of a hot outside shot. Second and more importantly, he pulls KG out of the lane giving Howard much more room to maneuver and out-athletic Perkins. If the Magic can get Lewis to heat up and Howard to get back to his old defensive ways, they definitely can still win this series. One final note: The Magic need Vince Carter to work as a part of their offense like he did in the Hawks series rather than playing one-on-one clear out basketball like he is in this series. Vince is a valuable asset for Orlando as a part of their greater offensive scheme. However, he most certainly can not beat the Celtics by himself. If Vince is playing too great a role in the Orlando offensive, they have no shot at all.