What a set of finals!

This is going to be a short, excited post today. Short because I am packing and leaving for the beach today. And excited because wow, what a turn the conference finals have taken! Last time I wrote about the Suns and Magic, they seemed dead in the water. Since then so much has changed. In the East, momentum is wholly in Orlando's court. Jameer Nelson is showing that it is possibly to outplay the fantastic Rajon Rondo. Rashard Lewis has re-discovered his 3-point shot and is once again an offensive force. And Dwight Howard is bullying every big man the Celtics throw at him. [Isn't amazing that they are accomplishing all of this without any major contribution from Vince Carter. Imagine if they still had the Hedo Turkoglu.] Last time I wrote about them, I said the Magic had a 5% chance of winning this series. After watching the last two games, they now have an even 50% chance of winning the East. And out West, the Suns have captured lightening in a bottle. Beyond a rejuvenated Amare and they absurdly deep and talented bench, the Suns swept the Lakers in the desert and came within 2 points of stunning the champs at home. Still, LA is undefeated at home and when both teams play to their full potential is vastly superior, so they stil must be considered the heavy favorite. The Suns new odds to win are 35%. However these two series end up, it should be an incredible ride!

College Football Preseason Top 5

Every sportswriter in the world does a college football preseason top 10, so I figured I should do a Top 5 to be a little different. So here we go:

1) Boise State Broncos- Yes, I truly believe this. You heard it here first, the Boise State Broncos will win the 2010-11 BCS National Title. This team returns basically every player from their undefeated, Fiesta Bowl winning team from last year. More importantly, they return the most accurate, most consistent quarterback in the nation, Kyle Wilson. And this team has shown that they always get up for big games. They will beat Virginia Tech on Labor Day and beat whoever the BCS cartel challenges them with in Phoenix next January.

2) Alabama Crimson Tide- They are the defending national champs and there is no reason they shouldn't repeat. If not for the Broncos, they would definitely be #1. They return a solid QB in Greg McElroy, an elite receiver in Julio Jones, and an amazing running back 1-2 punch in Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. They have lost quite a few defensive players, but the return of Tim Hightower and Nick Saban's recruiting prowess should make up for that. While they won't repeat as National Champs, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see them in Phoenix as well.

3) Ohio State Buckeyes- Behind any quarterback, this team would be good. But behind Terrell Pryor, this team can be amazing. It took until his junior year for Vince Young to become Superman. Well Pryor has hit his third year and it is his time to take off. If Pryor can be a fraction of what Young was his junior year, this team can be really, really special. However, since they are Ohio State, they will inevitable stumble somewhere along the way. And that is why they must be behind the Broncos and Crimson Tide.

4) Florida State Seminoles- I know, I know, no one else agrees with me. And I don't just have them here because I am a fan. Beyond their absurdly experienced offensive line and Heisman contender Christian Ponder, there isn't a team in the nation that can stop this offensive. Once again, the defensive will be the big question. I love Micky Andrews to death, but he wasn't using his defensive talent to the best of its ability. Mark Stoops should use their talent level much more fully. Between a highly ranked recruiting class and the moving of superstar corner Greg Reid to the starting line-up, this team should win the ACC and compete for a National Title bid. Call me crazy if you want, but you heard it here first: The Seminoles are back!

5) Texas Longhorns- This team actually returns a lot of starters, particularly at the skill positions. However, they are missing the big piece that ran it all, Colt McCoy. Still, Gerald Gilbert showed in the National Title Game that he is very talented and can handle the big stage. According to SI, the Longhorns are also moving away from the spread of Young and McCoy to a more traditional attack. This team should repeat as Big 12 Champions and are primed for another BCS game appearance.

Next 5: TCU Horned Frogs, Arkansas Razorbacks, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Nebraska Cornhuskers, Iowa Hawkeyes

Let's Talk About Baseball

So far we have talked a lot about basketball and a little bit about football, but nothing about baseball. So, how are things going in America's past time? Specifically, what teams are playing above their preseason expectations? If the season were to end today, in the American League the Rays would win the East, the Twins would win the Central, the Rangers would win the West, and the Yankees would win the Wild Card. The result in the East is not all that unsurprising. So far this season, the Rays have been the best team in baseball. That is not surprising given the absurd amount of talent on that time. Either the Rays or my Yankees are sure to win the Wild Card, whichever one doesn't take the division that is. The biggest surprise is the fact that the East is only a two team race. Apparently the Red Sox pitching and defense experiment has failed. On to the wide open Central, no one should be surprised the Twins are winning. It feels like 3 or 4 teams have a chance to win this division every year and more often than not that team has turned out to be the Twins. With their offensive core surrounding Maeur, the Twins should keep on winning for many years to come. [On a side note, I am really excited for the Twins new outdoor stadium to open. Hopefully, the Minnesota weather can give them a really cool homefield advantage.] Finally, the biggest surprise in the AL is out West. In fact, the standings are the complete reverse of what one could expect. The Rangers have been up and coming for years, but they have final put together a pitching staff and turned a corner. Hopefully, they can sustain it all year because this team could be exciting come the postseason. The A's are right where anyone could expect them, playing well but with no chance of seriously contending. The Angels seem to final be declining after a decade of dominance in the West. All of the losses from their core have finally caught up with them. And finally, the most surprising team is the awful Mariners. With their much improved pitching, this team was a popular pick to win the division and a sleeper pick to win the pennant. Instead, the Mariners absolutely cannot score and are putting the best 1-2 pitching tandem in the league to waste.

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

They did it. The Magic and Suns both won their MUST win games. And just as impressively, they both won with truly dominate performances from their superstars. Amare Stoudemire went a long way towards quieting his critics with his 42-point, 11-rebound performance. And Dwight Howard showed that the Magic will not go down with a fight with his 32-point,16-rebound, 4-block performance. But are these performances sustainable? What chance do the Magic and Suns have of rallying and pulling off the upset? Lets look at the Suns first. Down 2-1, the Suns really aren't in awful shape. They have shown that when the cards break their way, they can beat the Lakers. Just as importantly, they made LA bleed and showed they can be beat. However, to win this series, the Suns are going to have to play at least to their Game 3 level 3 more times. And two of those times will be in LA. So while it is possible, it will be incredibly difficult for Phoenix to win this series. The Suns have a 15% chance of winning this series. Now the Magic, they are in must worse shape. Even if they can sustain tonight's effort for 3 more games, the Magic cannot win this series. It took a dominate performance and overtime to win tonight. There is one thing Orlando can do to totally revolutionize this series and give themselves a fighting chance. And that is for same thing I have been preaching this whole series to happen. Rashard Lewis absolutely has too light it up from behind the arc. He played better tonight, but he needs to take his game to a whole new level. If Lewis can pick his game and clear Garnett out of the lane, then the Magic can give themselves the chance to pull off the ultimate upset. The Magic have a 5% chance of winning this series.

Slight Lull in Posting

I am taking a brief break from posting to help my girlfriend move into her new place. Because of the move, my access to the Internet is very intermittent. Therefore, I should start posting daily again starting on Monday. Luckily, the NBA playoffs have taken a break along with me. They start up again tonight. Hopefully at least one of the two teams I am cheering for can win. Go Magic and Suns!

Can the Magic Still Win?

Of course they can. The Magic obliterated the Hawks with a group of 3-point sharpshooters. They shot so well from beyond the arc that they destroyed Atlanta without a dominating offensive performance from Dwight Howard. On the defensive end however, Howard was incredibly dominating. His numbers don't even fully show how many Hawks' shots he altered. Now flash to the first two games of this series. Howards' offensive numbers have been much higher, with him scoring 30 in Game 2. On the defensive end he has turned in a much more pedestrian effort. Kendrick Perkins has been doing a better job of entire defense than Howard has. More deadly for the Magic however, has been the sudden loss of their outside shot. Rashard Lewis had an excellent Hawks series, but he has been stone cold versus the Celtics. His impact is two-fold. First, he gives Orlando the obvious benefit of a hot outside shot. Second and more importantly, he pulls KG out of the lane giving Howard much more room to maneuver and out-athletic Perkins. If the Magic can get Lewis to heat up and Howard to get back to his old defensive ways, they definitely can still win this series. One final note: The Magic need Vince Carter to work as a part of their offense like he did in the Hawks series rather than playing one-on-one clear out basketball like he is in this series. Vince is a valuable asset for Orlando as a part of their greater offensive scheme. However, he most certainly can not beat the Celtics by himself. If Vince is playing too great a role in the Orlando offensive, they have no shot at all.

Best of the NFL Offseason

We've seen the draft and we've seen plenty of free agency. So which moves were good and which moves were bad? Here are the 3 best moves of this NFL offseason:

Best:

1) Panthers draft Jimmy Clausen with the 48th overall pick: For most of the year, Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen were considered equally likely to go #1. Then, due to some "leadership issues", Clause collapsed down the draft boards. He fell so far that he was drafted significantly after a QB without the skills needed to started in the NFL. However, Jimmy's apparent loss is actually a win for both the Panthers and Jimmy. The Panthers were able to draft a franchise QB in the 2nd round. Clausen produced monster numbers in a pro-style offense. H also showed a knack for playing under pressure. Notre Dame's poor record was not his fault. He basically spent his college career playing without a defense. Now the Panthers can enter the year with a competition between Matt Moore and Clausen. Even if Moore proves to be a quality starter in his own right, the Panthers can trade one or sit back knowing they have too quality starters. And for Clausen, rather than joining an awful team with holes all over the board, he is joining a fringe playoff contender needing only a steady QB. If any QB from this year's draft is going to go the route of Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez, it will be Clausen. While I'm sure he envies Bradford's money, he just rest easy knowing he is in a much better situation.

2) Eagles trade Donovan McNabb to the Redskins for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick: I am simply amazed with how poorly the Eagles have treated McNabb throughout his tenure with them. They booed him when he was drafted and it has been all down hill from there. Most fans would kill for the decade the Eagles have had with McNabb. Instead, Eagles fans have whined and moaned every step of the way. He has led them to 5 NFC East titles and an NFC Conference Championship. He continues to play at an extremely high level. And yet, the Eagles let him go in order to play a young QB who has had a couple good games but has never shown any indication of being able to start full-time. And in a city as cut-throat as Philly (they booed Santa Claus for God's sake!) Make no mistake, I understand they needed to trade one of the two Qbs. I would have traded the unproven youth over the franchise star, but I guess thats why I'm not a GM. From Washington's point of view, they basically committed a highway robbery of the Eagles. It boggles my mind that the Eagles would trade a franchise QB to a division rival and not even get a 1st rounder in return. They will see their error when Washington finishes ahead of Philly this year despite a less talented roster overall. I cannot wait until McNabb makes his return to Lincoln field. Should be a treat!

3) Raiders trade Jason Campbell to the Redskins for a 4th-round pick: Every columnist in the country has already said this, but surprise, surprise the Raiders made a good offseason move! While he is definitely not an elite starter, Campbell is a very legitimate NFL starter. Seeing as how even Bruce Gradkowski could win a couple games with the Raiders last year, Campbell could make this team relevant for the first time in years. The cherry on the top for the Raiders is the fact that their acquisition of Campbell allowed them to release good-for-nothing former #1 pick JaMarcus Russell. [This trade also brings up a side point about the NFL I've always wondered about. Isn't it incredible how little most NFL players fetch in open market trades? Most fans can agree that a legitimate starting NFL QB is worth a 1st round pick. And yet, Campbell was only worth a 4th rounder? This same rule extends beyond the QB position. Sure Hall of Famer and elite wide receiver Randy Moss also fetched only a 4th rounder on his way out of Oakland. Star safety Kerry Rhodes was traded for a 4th rounder and a 7th rounder. And yet, the Chiefs spent the #5 overall pick on a safety who most likely will have nearly the same value. I could go on about this topic forever (I most likely will devote a post to it at some point) but I just find it odd that the value of draft picks versus active players in the NFL seems so inconsistent.]