And the dust settles on the NCAA

It appears that the Big 12 apocalypse has passed and the conference will survive. At least that is what Andy Staples and SI are reporting (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/ncaa/06/14/texas.big.12.ap/index.html?eref=sihp). Let me start out by saying how truly surprised I am by this result. When I wrote my blog Friday night about how I expected this all to play out, I didn't expect things to work out exactly as I said. But I expected that the Pac-16 would happen. It appears that political pressure in Texas and some last minute deal making by Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe saved the day. The real question is: what does this latest development mean for the rest of the conference realignment game? First and most obvious, the Pac-16 is not going to happen (which means the era of the superconference is not upon us yet). However, the Pac-10 currently has 11 members. They can stay at this number [and even still call themselves the Pac-10, I am looking at you Big 10] or they can bring in one more team and gain the all powerful (read: $$) conference title game. They will almost certainly bring in one more team since 11 is a size with no real benefit. And this team will almost certainly be Utah. The Utes are the best pick for a whole host of reasons and would jump at this opportunity in an instant. The second change from tonight's news is now the Big 10 will most likely hold strong at 12 members [maybe they could trade names with the now 10 member Big 12]. The only exception to this is if Notre Dame suddenly changes its mind and decides to join the Big 10. However, this won't happen because the Big East is somehow going to live to fight another die again! [Big East = the Little Conference that Could] The reason the Big East will survive is that Texas A&M has also decided to stay in the Big 12. Therefore the SEC has no need to steal from the ACC, meaning the ACC has no reason to steal from the Big East. [Wow this stuff is complicated!] So in effect, after all this talk, all that has really happened is Colorado and Utah (most likely) have moved to the Pac-10, Boise State has replaced Utah in the MWC, and Nebraska has defected to the Big 10. Surprising, but definitely not the ground breaking change we were expecting all weekend. And unless Notre Dame decides to shock the world, what has happened so far is likely to be the end result of this round of conference realignment.