Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Where will the King make his court?

This article is Part 1 of a 2-part series about the impending NBA free agency.  This posts deals with the possible destination of the biggest free agent in NBA (and probably sports) history, Lebron James.  Part 2 will be my predictions for where the top free agents will end up.   Without further ado, here is my analysis of where the King will go next (it works towards the most likely, meaning the Knicks are the least likely possible winner of the Lebron sweepstakes):

6) New York Knicks - They have been planning on acquiring Lebron for over two years, but it does not make any sense for him to end up in NYC.  In order to have the cap room to sign Lebron and another top player, the Knicks have gutted their roster to the point where they are basically an expansion team.  Even with Lebron and a hypothetical Chris Bosh, this team won't be able to compete for the NBA title because there won't be another above-average player on the team.  Plus, in today's global economy, New York's marketing advantage over other cities isn't nearly as big as it once was.  And the city already has the greatest baseball team in the history of the world, it doesn't need the best basketball player in the world too.

5) Cleveland Cavaliers - It pains me to rank the home team in this competition so low.  Especially, when you take into account how much the city of Cleveland has suffered when it comes to sports.  But it would be an awful basketball decision for Lebron to return to the Cleve.  Like New York, this team does not have the talent to win an NBA title.  Mo Williams has got to be the worst shooter in NBA history and Antwan Jamison isn't getting any younger or any taller.  While the Cavs can offer Lebron $30 million more than any other team, this amount shouldn't sway his decision.  The King could make over $1 billion in his life.  He shouldn't sacrifice his legacy and many, many titles for $30 million.

4)  LA Clippers - Most writers have the Clippers rated lower than this.  But if you actually look at the talent on this team, it is very good.  With Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Aminu Al-Farouq, Blake Griffin, and Chris Kaman, the Clippers have a great starting 5.  Throw in the King and they have one of the best 6-deep lineups in the league.  Plus, LA has the same big city appeal as NYC.  And Lebron could beat Kobe in Kobe's town.  However, Clippers' owner Donald Sterling is one of the worst owners in American sports.  And the Clippers are cursed.  If Lebron signed in LA, he would probably break every bone in his body.

3) New Jersey Nets - This is another team that most writers have rated lower than this.  The Nets also have a good core with Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, and Brook Lopez.  Add Lebron and this team becomes way better than the 12 wins they got last year.  Plus they have a super Russian billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov.  And they are moving to Brooklyn in 2 years.  And Lebron's good friend Jay-Z is also a part owner.  And the Nets give Lebron access to all of the perks of NYC without having to deal with the awfulness that is the Knicks.  Still the Nets have to play 2 more years in Newark, and NO ONE wants to go to New Jersey.  Plus, the Nets are close enough to the Yankees that they probably can't handle anymore awesomeness.

2)  Miami Heat - The Heat were much lower on this list until word came out about the free-agent pow-wow that Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Lebron had where they all decided to go to Miami.  If Lebron has already made this decision, its his business, but it would be a terribly career move.  A team with 3 superstars and 3 alpha dogs is inherently unstable.  Even if they could win one or two titles (and I don't think they would) this team would break up before they could cement their legacy as one of the best ever.  Plus, if Lebron wins all of his titles with Wade, he can never claim to be an all-time great.  Part of being a basketball legend is winning when you are "the man" on your team.  Magic won as the alpha-dog.  Michael won as the alpha-dog.  Kareem won as the alpha-dog.  Kobe thinks he won as the alpha-dog.  Finally, this team would not be as good as it first appears.  With 3 guys under near max contracts, they would barely be able to sign enough scrubs to fill out a roster.  And 3 superstars and 7 scrubs are not going to beat a great team.  Lebron doesn't need to surround himself with the best talent.  He has more than enough talent to win.  He needs to join a good team.  A good team like:

1) Chicago Bulls - The Bulls can offer Lebron everything he has ever wanted, and more.  They have a great foundation in place and with him, they would instantly become the best team in the league.  Their hypothetical starting line-up is Derrick Rose, Lebron, Luol Deng, Chris Bosh, and Joakim Noah with Taj Gibson as the 6th man. Plus Chicago is big enough to offer a lot of the perks of NYC or LA while still having the smaller town feel of Cleveland.  And it isn't that far away from Lebron's boyhood home of Akron, OH.  But the best reason for Lebron to go to Chi-town is one that no one is talking about.  Unlike Kobe, Lebron is all about honoring Michael Jordan's greatness.  What better way to honor Jordan than to rebuild the dynasty in his city and lift the Bulls franchise to a level almost on-par with the Lakers and Celtics.  If the Bulls can keep their core of Rose, Lebron, Bosh, and Noah together for the next 8 to 10 years, then they should win 8 to 10 titles. 

Chicago wins!

2 comments:

  1. I've grown weary of most of the coverage on James's free agent tour, but that was a well written article with a reasonable guess where he'll end up.

    I'm thinking Cleveland makes him an offer he can't refuse. Chicago is my next choice.

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  2. The speculative what-if analysis is one of my favorite things about sports so I have not grown weary. But it is certainly understandable that most people have.

    Because of the salary cap, Cleveland can't make Lebron too much of an offer than he can't refuse. If he goes back to the Cavs, he is choosing money over legacy. As a Lebron fan, that would be very disappointing to see.

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